Notch2 controls developmental fate choices between germinal center and marginal zone B cells upon immunization.

Sustained Notch2 signals induce trans-differentiation of Follicular B (FoB) cells into Marginal Zone B (MZB) cells in mice, but the physiology underlying this differentiation pathway is still elusive. Here, we demonstrate that most B cells receive a basal Notch signal, which is intensified in pre-MZB and MZB cells. Ablation or constitutive activation of Notch2 upon T-cell-dependent immunization reveals an interplay between antigen-induced activation and Notch2 signaling, in which FoB cells that turn off Notch2 signaling enter germinal centers (GC), while high Notch2 signaling leads to generation of MZB cells or to initiation of plasmablast differentiation. Notch2 signaling is dispensable for GC dynamics but appears to be re-induced in some centrocytes to govern expansion of IgG1+ GCB cells. Mathematical modelling suggests that antigen-activated FoB cells make a Notch2 dependent binary fate-decision to differentiate into either GCB or MZB cells. This bifurcation might serve as a mechanism to archive antigen-specific clones into functionally and spatially diverse B cell states to generate robust antibody and memory responses.

Quantifying cellular dynamics in mice using a novel fluorescent division reporter system.

The dynamics of cell populations are frequently studied in vivo using pulse-chase DNA labeling techniques. When combined with mathematical models, the kinetic of label uptake and loss within a population of interest then allows one to estimate rates of cell production and turnover through death or onward differentiation. Here we explore an alternative method of quantifying cellular dynamics, using a cell fate-mapping mouse model in which dividing cells can be induced to constitutively express a fluorescent protein, using a Ki67 reporter construct. We use a pulse-chase approach with this reporter mouse system to measure the lifespans and division rates of naive CD4 and CD8 T cells using a variety of modeling approaches, and show that they are all consistent with estimates derived from other published methods. However we propose that to obtain unbiased parameter estimates and full measures of their uncertainty one should simultaneously model the timecourses of the frequencies of labeled cells within both the population of interest and its precursor. We conclude that Ki67 reporter mice provide a promising system for modeling cellular dynamics.

Site-specific development and progressive maturation of human tissue-resident memory T cells over infancy and childhood.

Infancy and childhood are critical life stages for generating immune memory to protect against pathogens; however, the timing, location, and pathways for memory development in humans remain elusive. Here, we investigated T cells in mucosal sites, lymphoid tissues, and blood from 96 pediatric donors aged 0-10 years using phenotypic, functional, and transcriptomic profiling. Our results revealed that memory T cells preferentially localized in the intestines and lungs during infancy and accumulated more rapidly in mucosal sites compared with blood and lymphoid organs, consistent with site-specific antigen exposure. Early life mucosal memory T cells exhibit distinct functional capacities and stem-like transcriptional profiles. In later childhood, they progressively adopt proinflammatory functions and tissue-resident signatures, coincident with increased T cell receptor (TCR) clonal expansion in mucosal and lymphoid sites. Together, our findings identify staged development of memory T cells targeted to tissues during the formative years, informing how we might promote and monitor immunity in children.

Modeling T Cell Fate.

Many of the pathways that underlie the diversification of naive T cells into effector and memory subsets, and the maintenance of these populations, remain controversial. In recent years a variety of experimental tools have been developed that allow us to follow the fates of cells and their descendants. In this review we describe how mathematical models provide a natural language for describing the growth, loss, and differentiation of cell populations. By encoding mechanistic descriptions of cell behavior, models can help us interpret these new datasets and reveal the rules underpinning T cell fate decisions, both at steady state and during immune responses.

U.S. West Coast droughts and heat waves exacerbate pollution inequality and can evade emission control policies.

Droughts reduce hydropower production and heatwaves increase electricity demand, forcing power system operators to rely more on fossil fuel power plants. However, less is known about how droughts and heat waves impact the county level distribution of health damages from power plant emissions. Using California as a case study, we simulate emissions from power plants under a 500-year synthetic weather ensemble. We find that human health damages are highest in hot, dry years. Counties with a majority of people of color and counties with high pollution burden (which are somewhat overlapping) are disproportionately impacted by increased emissions from power plants during droughts and heat waves. Taxing power plant operations based on each plant's contribution to health damages significantly reduces average exposure. However, emissions taxes do not reduce air pollution damages on the worst polluting days, because supply scarcity (caused by severe heat waves) forces system operators to use every power plant available to avoid causing a blackout.

Healthy dynamics of CD4 T cells may drive HIV resurgence in perinatally-infected infants on antiretroviral therapy.

In 2019 there were 490,000 children under five living with HIV. Understanding the dynamics of HIV suppression and rebound in this age group is crucial to optimizing treatment strategies and increasing the likelihood of infants achieving and sustaining viral suppression. Here we studied data from a cohort of 122 perinatally-infected infants who initiated antiretroviral treatment (ART) early after birth and were followed for up to four years. These data included longitudinal measurements of viral load (VL) and CD4 T cell numbers, together with information regarding treatment adherence. We previously showed that the dynamics of HIV decline in 53 of these infants who suppressed VL within one year were similar to those in adults. However, in extending our analysis to all 122 infants, we find that a deterministic model of HIV infection in adults cannot explain the full diversity in infant trajectories. We therefore adapt this model to include imperfect ART adherence and natural CD4 T cell decline and reconstitution processes in infants. We find that individual variation in both processes must be included to obtain the best fits. We also find that infants with faster rates of CD4 reconstitution on ART were more likely to experience resurgences in VL. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of combining mathematical modeling with clinical data to disentangle the role of natural immune processes and viral dynamics during HIV infection.

Towards a unified model of naive T cell dynamics across the lifespan.

Naive CD4 and CD8 T cells are cornerstones of adaptive immunity, but the dynamics of their establishment early in life and how their kinetics change as they mature following release from the thymus are poorly understood. Further, due to the diverse signals implicated in naive T cell survival, it has been a long-held and conceptually attractive view that they are sustained by active homeostatic control as thymic activity wanes. Here we use multiple modelling and experimental approaches to identify a unified model of naive CD4 and CD8 T cell population dynamics in mice, across their lifespan. We infer that both subsets divide rarely, and progressively increase their survival capacity with cell age. Strikingly, this simple model is able to describe naive CD4 T cell dynamics throughout life. In contrast, we find that newly generated naive CD8 T cells are lost more rapidly during the first 3-4 weeks of life, likely due to increased recruitment into memory. We find no evidence for elevated division rates in neonates, or for feedback regulation of naive T cell numbers at any age. We show how confronting mathematical models with diverse datasets can reveal a quantitative and remarkably simple picture of naive T cell dynamics in mice from birth into old age.

Why marginal CO2 emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy.

Marginal emissions of CO2 from the electricity sector are critical for evaluating climate policies that rely on shifts in electricity demand or supply. This paper provides estimates of marginal CO2 emissions from US electricity generation using the most recently available and comprehensive data. The estimates vary by region, hour of the day, and year to year over the last decade. We identify an important and somewhat counterintuitive finding: While average emissions have decreased substantially over the last decade (28% nationally), marginal emissions have increased (7% nationally). We show that underlying these trends is primarily a shift toward greater reliance on coal to satisfy marginal electricity use. We apply our estimates to an analysis of the Biden administration's target of having electric vehicles (EVs) make up 50% of new vehicle purchases by 2030. We find that, without significant and concurrent changes to the electricity sector, the increase in electricity emissions is likely to offset more than half of the emission reductions from having fewer gasoline-powered vehicles on the road. Moreover, using average rather than marginal emissions to predict the impacts significantly overestimates the emission benefits. Overall, we find that the promise of EVs for reducing emissions depends, to a large degree, on complementary policies that decarbonize both average and marginal emissions in the electricity sector.

Vitamin D deficiency after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation promotes T-cell activation and is inversely associated with an EZH2-ID3 signature.

Vitamin D promotes a shift from a proinflammatory to a more tolerogenic immune state in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients. The dominant mechanism responsible for this shift has not been elucidated. We took a multifaceted approach to evaluating the clinical and immunologic impact of low vitamin D levels in 53 HCT recipients. We used 28-plex flow cytometry for immunophenotyping, serum cytokine levels, T-cell cytokine production, and T-cell whole genome transcription. The median day-30 vitamin D level was 20 ng/mL, and deficiency was common in younger patients undergoing myeloablative transplantation. Low vitamin D levels were associated with a high CD8/Treg ratio, increased serum levels and T-cell production of proinflammatory cytokines, and a gene expression signature of unrestrained T-cell proliferation and epigenetic modulation through the PRC2/EZH2 complex. Immunophenotyping confirmed a strong association between high levels of vitamin D and an activated EZH2 signature, characterized by overexpression of ID3, which has a role in effector T-cell differentiation. Our findings demonstrate the critical role of vitamin D in modulating T-cell function in human GVHD and identify a previously undescribed interaction with EZH2 and ID3, which may impact effector differentiation and has implications to cell therapies and other forms of cancer immunotherapy. © 20XX American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal profiling of respiratory and systemic immune responses reveals myeloid cell-driven lung inflammation in severe COVID-19.

Immune response dynamics in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their severe manifestations have largely been studied in circulation. Here, we examined the relationship between immune processes in the respiratory tract and circulation through longitudinal phenotypic, transcriptomic, and cytokine profiling of paired airway and blood samples from patients with severe COVID-19 relative to heathy controls. In COVID-19 airways, T cells exhibited activated, tissue-resident, and protective profiles; higher T cell frequencies correlated with survival and younger age. Myeloid cells in COVID-19 airways featured hyperinflammatory signatures, and higher frequencies of these cells correlated with mortality and older age. In COVID-19 blood, aberrant CD163+ monocytes predominated over conventional monocytes, and were found in corresponding airway samples and in damaged alveoli. High levels of myeloid chemoattractants in airways suggest recruitment of these cells through a CCL2-CCR2 chemokine axis. Our findings provide insights into immune processes driving COVID-19 lung pathology with therapeutic implications for targeting inflammation in the respiratory tract.

Variable selection methods for predicting clinical outcomes following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is a potentially curative procedure for a large number of diseases. However, the greatest barriers to the success of allo-HCT are relapse and graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD). Many studies have examined the reconstitution of the immune system after allo-HCT and searched for factors associated with clinical outcome. Serum biomarkers have also been studied to predict the incidence and prognosis of GVHD. However, the use of multiparametric immunophenotyping has been less extensively explored: studies usually focus on preselected and predefined cell phenotypes and so do not fully exploit the richness of flow cytometry data. Here we aimed to identify cell phenotypes present 30 days after allo-HCT that are associated with clinical outcomes in 37 patients participating in a trial relating to the prevention of GVHD, derived from 82 flow cytometry markers and 13 clinical variables. To do this we applied variable selection methods in a competing risks modeling framework, and identified specific subsets of T, B, and NK cells associated with relapse. Our study demonstrates the value of variable selection methods for mining rich, high dimensional clinical data and identifying potentially unexplored cell subpopulations of interest.

Fate Mapping Quantifies the Dynamics of B Cell Development and Activation throughout Life.

Follicular mature (FM) and germinal center (GC) B cells underpin humoral immunity, but the dynamics of their generation and maintenance are not clearly defined. Here, we exploited a fate-mapping system in mice that tracks B cells as they develop into peripheral subsets, together with a cell division fate reporter mouse and mathematical models. We find that FM cells are kinetically homogeneous, recirculate freely, are continually replenished from transitional populations, and self-renew rarely. In contrast, GC B cell lineages persist for weeks with rapid turnover and site-specific dynamics. Those in the spleen derive from transitional cells and are kinetically homogeneous, while those in lymph nodes derive from FM B cells and comprise both transient and persistent clones. These differences likely derive from the nature of antigen exposure at the different sites. Our integrative approach also reveals how the host environment drives cell-extrinsic, age-related changes in B cell homeostasis.

Analysis of respiratory and systemic immune responses in COVID-19 reveals mechanisms of disease pathogenesis.

Immune responses to respiratory viruses like SARS-CoV-2 originate and function in the lung, yet assessments of human immunity are often limited to blood. Here, we conducted longitudinal, high-dimensional profiling of paired airway and blood samples from patients with severe COVID-19, revealing immune processes in the respiratory tract linked to disease pathogenesis. Survival from severe disease was associated with increased CD4 + T cells and decreased monocyte/macrophage frequencies in the airway, but not in blood. Airway T cells and macrophages exhibited tissue-resident phenotypes and activation signatures, including high level expression and secretion of monocyte chemoattractants CCL2 and CCL3 by airway macrophages. By contrast, monocytes in blood expressed the CCL2-receptor CCR2 and aberrant CD163 + and immature phenotypes. Extensive accumulation of CD163 + monocyte/macrophages within alveolar spaces in COVID-19 lung autopsies suggested recruitment from circulation. Our findings provide evidence that COVID-19 pathogenesis is driven by respiratory immunity, and rationale for site-specific treatment and prevention strategies.

Quantifying the Dynamics of HIV Decline in Perinatally Infected Neonates on Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical modeling has provided important insights into HIV infection dynamics in adults undergoing antiretroviral treatment (ART). However, much less is known about the corresponding dynamics in perinatally infected neonates initiating early ART. SETTING: From 2014 to 2017, HIV viral load (VL) was monitored in 122 perinatally infected infants identified at birth and initiating ART within a median of 2 days. Pretreatment infant and maternal covariates, including CD4 T cell counts and percentages, were also measured. METHODS: From the initial cohort, 53 infants demonstrated consistent decline and suppressed VL below the detection threshold (20 copies mL) within 1 year. For 43 of these infants with sufficient VL data, we fit a mathematical model describing the loss of short-lived and long-lived infected cells during ART. We then estimated the lifespans of infected cells and the time to viral suppression, and tested for correlations with pretreatment covariates. RESULTS: Most parameters governing the kinetics of VL decline were consistent with those obtained previously from adults and other infants. However, our estimates of the lifespan of short-lived infected cells were longer than published values. This difference may reflect sparse sampling during the early stages of VL decline, when the loss of short-lived cells is most apparent. In addition, infants with higher pretreatment CD4 percentage or lower pretreatment VL trended toward more rapid viral suppression. CONCLUSIONS: HIV dynamics in perinatally infected neonates initiating early ART are broadly similar to those observed in other age groups. Accelerated viral suppression is also associated with higher CD4 percentage and lower VL.

ushr: Understanding suppression of HIV in R.

BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS is responsible for the deaths of one million people every year. Although mathematical modeling has provided many insights into the dynamics of HIV infection, there is still a lack of accessible tools for researchers unfamiliar with modeling techniques to apply them to their own clinical data. RESULTS: Here we present ushr, a free and open-source R package that models the decline of HIV during antiretroviral treatment (ART) using a popular mathematical framework. ushr can be applied to longitudinal data of viral load measurements, and provides processing tools to prepare it for computational analysis. By mathematically fitting the data, important biological parameters can then be estimated, including the lifespans of short and long-lived infected cells, and the time to reach viral suppression below a defined detection threshold. The package also provides visualization and summary tools for fast assessment of model results. CONCLUSIONS: ushr enables researchers without a strong mathematical or computational background to model the dynamics of HIV using longitudinal clinical data. Increasing accessibility to such methods may facilitate quantitative analysis across a broader range of independent studies, so that greater insights on HIV infection and treatment dynamics may be gained.

Time to Viral Suppression in Perinatally HIV-Infected Infants Depends on the Viral Load and CD4 T-Cell Percentage at the Start of Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Interventions aiming for an HIV cure would benefit from rapid elimination of virus after the onset of antiretroviral therapy (ART), by keeping the latent HIV reservoir small. SETTING: We investigated HIV suppression in 312 perinatally infected infants starting ART within 6 months after birth from the EPPICC (European Pregnancy and Paediatric HIV Cohort Collaboration). METHODS: To better understand kinetic differences in HIV suppression among infants, we investigated their individual viral load (VL) decay dynamics. We identified VL decay patterns and determined times to viral suppression (TTS). For infants with strictly declining VLs (n = 188), we used parameter fitting methods to estimate baseline VLs, decay rates, and TTS. We subsequently identified the parameters determining TTS by linear modeling. RESULTS: The majority of infants suppress HIV VL after the onset of ART. Some children experienced a long TTS due to an "erratic" VL decay pattern. We cannot exclude that this is partly due to treatment complications and subsequent treatment changes, but these children were characterized by significantly lower CD4 percentages (CD4%) at start of treatment compared with those with a "clean" VL decline. Focusing on this "clean" subset, the TTS could be predicted by mathematical modeling, and we identified baseline VL and CD4% as the major factors determining the TTS. CONCLUSIONS: As VL steeply increases and CD4% constantly decreases in untreated HIV-infected infants, the progression of an HIV infection is largely determined by these 2 factors. To prevent a further disease progression, treatment should be initiated early after contracting HIV, which consequently shortens TTS.

Differential impact of self and environmental antigens on the ontogeny and maintenance of CD4+ T cell memory.

Laboratory mice develop populations of circulating memory CD4+ T cells in the absence of overt infection. We have previously shown that these populations are replenished from naive precursors at high levels throughout life (Gossel et al., 2017). However, the nature, relative importance and timing of the forces generating these cells remain unclear. Here, we tracked the generation of memory CD4+ T cell subsets in mice housed in facilities differing in their 'dirtiness'. We found evidence for sequential naive to central memory to effector memory development, and confirmed that both memory subsets are heterogeneous in their rates of turnover. We also inferred that early exposure to self and environmental antigens establishes persistent memory populations at levels determined largely, although not exclusively, by the dirtiness of the environment. After the first few weeks of life, however, these populations are continuously supplemented by new memory cells at rates that are independent of environment.

Tissue-Resident Memory T Cells in Mice and Humans: Towards a Quantitative Ecology.

In recent years, tissue-resident memory T cells (TRM) have emerged as essential components of immunological memory. Following antigenic challenge, TRM remain in nonlymphoid tissues and defend against re-exposure. Although accumulating evidence suggests important roles for TRM in mediating protective immunity, fundamental aspects of the population biology of TRM remain poorly understood. In this article, we discuss how results from different systems shed light on the ecological dynamics of TRM in mice and humans. We highlight the importance of dissecting processes contributing to TRM maintenance, and how these might vary across phenotypically and spatially heterogeneous subsets. We also discuss how the diversity of TRM communities within specific tissues may evolve under competition and in response to antigenic perturbation. Throughout, we illustrate how mathematical models can clarify inferences obtained from experimental data and help elucidate the homeostatic mechanisms underpinning the ecology of TRM populations.

A wave of monocytes is recruited to replenish the long-term Langerhans cell network after immune injury.

A dense population of embryo-derived Langerhans cells (eLCs) is maintained within the sealed epidermis without contribution from circulating cells. When this network is perturbed by transient exposure to ultraviolet light, short-term LCs are temporarily reconstituted from an initial wave of monocytes but thought to be superseded by more permanent repopulation with undefined LC precursors. However, the extent to which this process is relevant to immunopathological processes that damage LC population integrity is not known. Using a model of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, where alloreactive T cells directly target eLCs, we have asked whether and how the original LC network is ultimately restored. We find that donor monocytes, but not dendritic cells, are the precursors of long-term LCs in this context. Destruction of eLCs leads to recruitment of a wave of monocytes that engraft in the epidermis and undergo a sequential pathway of differentiation via transcriptionally distinct EpCAM+ precursors. Monocyte-derived LCs acquire the capacity of self-renewal, and proliferation in the epidermis matched that of steady-state eLCs. However, we identified a bottleneck in the differentiation and survival of epidermal monocytes, which, together with the slow rate of renewal of mature LCs, limits repair of the network. Furthermore, replenishment of the LC network leads to constitutive entry of cells into the epidermal compartment. Thus, immune injury triggers functional adaptation of mechanisms used to maintain tissue-resident macrophages at other sites, but this process is highly inefficient in the skin.